Populism in Power? Romania 2035: Scenario Analysis of Coalition Governance, Minority Rights, and European Values

Abstract

Leaving behind the last decades of intensive European integration, Romania currently faces many challenges stemming from populist nationalist-movements. Movements like these have the capacity to mobilise civil society in a way that brings forth anti-EU sentiment. Research indicates that in some regions of Europe, there is a regression with respect to democracy, the rule of law, and the rights of minorities. This present study concerning the subject of populism in 2026 is structured on three forward-looking scenarios. The time horizon sought under this analysis is by the year 2035. The methodological design is based on the following distinct scenarios: a radical-right populist party enters government through a coalition with a populist presidential candidate. The analysis also includes important junctures between electoral processes, political parties’ alliances within the process of coalition bargaining, as well as media narrative/media control implications. The scope of this exploration is to examine and debate upon far-right political shifts that come after major fiscal/judiciary policy changes that affect reform capacity and institutional trust. The three scenarios’ outcomes are meant to show how early-warning indicators for democratic backsliding can be considered for Romanian policy makers alongside civil society and their EU partners.